AEC

Weekly Market Intel — Raw Materials WMID

Week of 04/27/2026  ·  5 signals  ·  Last refresh: 04/27/2026 07:02 MST
    What changed this week Pectin spend +0.3% wk Tariff exposure unchanged 1 new 🔴 signal Vendor concentration −0.2 (Yantai Andre quote pulled) Dual-source readiness +5% EUR/USD 1.0824 (−0.4% wk)
    Workbook: linked Gmail PO scrape: on Manual config: v18 SI Director Worker:

    KPI Scoreboard

    Pectin spend YoY
    +18.4%QoQ +4.1% · H&F + 21% raw lift
    Tariff exposure $ delta
    +$42.6KIf Section 122 reverts to 15% on H&F
    Vendor concentration risk
    7.8 / 10Pectin single-sourced · backup → ≤5
    Lead-time variance · COGS
    ±9.4d+0.7% projected COGS impact
    Days of supply (pectin)
    38dHealthy · target 28–45d
    Dual-source readiness
    35%+5% wk · target 100% by Q3
    5% YoY savings progress
    2.4%Pacing · need +2.6% by EOY
    EUR/USD FX exposure
    $13.1KEUR 1.0824 · −0.4% wk · favorable
    Working capital · inventory
    $378K · 38dWithin healthy band · stable wk
    Single-country concentration
    42% Germany🟡 above 35% threshold · driver: H&F
    Reserved (next KPI)
    —Available slot
    Reserved (next KPI)
    —Available slot

    Cost-savings baselines (Pacific Pectin migration vs. H&F)

    vs. current H&F PO
    $167K / yrLast H&F PO unit price · current run-rate
    vs. FY 2026 budget
    $134K / yrAEC FY26 plan line item
    vs. trailing 4Q avg
    $152K / yrSmoothed for Q1 H&F spike
    vs. last quarter actual
    $183K / yrTightest comp · Q1 was peak
    Pacific Pectin migration · cumulative savings
    vs. current H&F vs. FY26 budget vs. trailing 4Q vs. last quarter
    Break-even
    07/14/2026
    vs. current H&F. Moves to ~06/22 if Section 122 expires on schedule.

    Vendor action funnel

    Signals5this week
    Outreach sent360% of signals
    Quotes received133% reply rate
    Qualified0in qualification: 1 (Pacific Pectin)
    Migrated0target: Pacific Pectin Q3 2026

    Upcoming events · next 4 weeks

    Wk of 04/27No procurement events—
    Wk of 05/04Q2 QBR prep · H&F + Peach TreeDraft agendas due Fri 05/08
    Wk of 05/11Bi-monthly price refresh · 5 primariesDrafts to Greg by Mon 05/11
    Wk of 05/18Pacific Pectin trial-batch checkpointSample receipt window opens 05/19
    Major fixed date: 07/24/2026 Section 122 baseline tariff expiry. + Calendar reminder

    Headlines

    Category sections

    Pectin

    H&F / global trend: structurally elevated. 21% YoY raw-material lift carried over. Brazil 2024 to 2025 citrus crop down 24%. HLB still suppressing yield in Brazil, Spain, U.S.

    Tariff watch: Germany at 10% Section 122, expiry 07/24/2026.

    Watchlist: Yantai Andre, Silvateam, CEAMSA. Pacific Pectin remains priority migration.

    Tapioca syrup

    Pricing: no clear public 2026 index this week. Cassava sourcing concentrated in Indonesia, Thailand, Laos.

    Alternates to Peach Tree: Ciranda, Cargill, Malt Products, Gillco, Jedwards, Glorybee.

    Recommend pulling Ciranda + Cargill quotes within 30 days.

    Sugar

    Conventional cane (NY11): futures off 2024 highs but elevated vs. 5-yr avg. Brazilian harvest forecast steady; India export quotas remain restricted.

    Organic cane premium: typically 50–100% over conventional. Florida Crystals + Wholesome are dominant US-organic suppliers.

    Relevance: Impact provides AEC sugar today (informational only). XL facility will buy direct in Q3 2026 — start qualifying organic-cane suppliers now.

    Natural colors

    Exberry alternates: Sensient, Chr. Hansen (FruitMax, ~16% share), Givaudan Sense Colour (DDW), ADM.

    Industry: GNT × Plume Biotechnology fermentation pipeline scaling. Market on path to $4.0B by 2035 from ~$2.0–2.2B in 2026.

    Flavors

    Custom Flavors alternates: Sensient BioSymphony, Flavorchem, Blue Pacific Flavors, Flavor Producers, ADM Wild.

    Trend: organic-certified flavors typically 15 to 30% above conventional naturals. Anything above that band is a renegotiation trigger.

    TariffTrade Policy / Tariffs▾

    Germany to U.S.: 10% Section 122 baseline (effective 02/24/2026), set to expire 07/24/2026. Effective duty = Section 122 baseline + HTS-line MFN + any sector surcharge. EU retaliatory tariffs on ~$28B U.S. ag exports remain in force, indirectly pressuring German supplier economics. No new tariff lines on Southeast Asian cassava, Brazilian/Spanish citrus, sugar, or color inputs this week.

    Recommended actions

    Alternative vendors identified this week

    VendorCategoryNotesQuote request & tracking
    …
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